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Impacto de la regla de decisión en el modelado de la difusión de innovaciones

Impact of the decision rule in innovation diffusion modeling

Cadavid, Lorena; Cardona, Carlos Jaime Franco

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Resumo

Este artículo analiza el impacto de la regla de decisión que representa el comportamiento de los individuos en la curva de difusión pronosticada por los modelos de difusión de innovaciones a nivel individual. Para ello, se hace uso de un modelo basado en agentes, en el cual la difusión ocurre dentro de una red tipo mundo pequeño, y se analiza el fenómeno usando 4 reglas de decisión diferentes: (1) una regla de umbrales con externalidades positivas, (2) una regla de umbrales con externalidades positivas y negativas, (3) una regla basada en el modelo de Bass y (4) una regla basada en la Teoría del Comportamiento Planeado. Los resultados obtenidos rechazan la hipótesis de igualdad entre las diferentes curvas de difusión. Se concluye que la regla de decisión tiene un impacto significativo en la curva de difusión pronosticada por los modelos de difusión a nivel individual.

Palavras-chave

Simulación. Difusión de innovaciones. Adopción de innovaciones. Modelado basado en agentes. Regla de decisión.

Abstract

In this, paper we analyze the impact of the decision rule to represent the behavior of individuals in the diffusion curve predicted by models of innovation diffusion at the individual level. We use an agent-based model, in which diffusion takes place in a small-world network, and analyze the phenomenon using 4 different decision rules: (1) threshold decision rule with positive externalities, (2) threshold decision rule with positive and negative externalities, (3) decision rule based on the Bass model and (4) decision rule based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The results reject the equality hypothesis among different diffusion curves, so we conclude the decision rule has a significant impact on the diffusion curve predicted by diffusion models at the individual level.

Keywords

Simulation. Innovation diffusion. Adoption of innovations. Agent-based modeling. Decision rule.

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